Communicating Uncertainty: The Role of Communication Format in Maximising Understanding and Maintaining Credibility

This thesis investigates the effect of communication format on the understanding of uncertainty communications and considers the implications of these findings for a communicator’s perceived credibility. The research compares five formats: verbal probability expressions (VPEs; e.g., ‘unlikely’); numerical expressions – point (e.g., ‘20% likelihood’) and range estimates (e.g., ‘10–30% likelihood’); and mixed expressions in two orders (verbal-numerical, e.g., ‘unlikely [20% likelihood]’ and numerical-verbal format, e.g., ‘20% likelihood [unlikely]’). Using the ‘which-outcome’ methodology, we observe that when participants are asked to estimate the probability of the outcome of a natural hazard that is described as ‘unlikely’, the majority indicate outcomes with a value exceeding the maximum value shown, equivalent to a 0% probability. Extending this work to numerical and mixed formats, we find that 0% interpretations are also given to communications using a verbal-numerical format (Chapter 2). If ‘unlikely’ is interpreted as referring to events which will never occur, there could be implications for a communicator’s perceived credibility should an ‘unlikely’ event actually occur. In the low probability domain, we find a communicator who uses a verbal format in their prediction is perceived as less credible and less correct than one who uses a numerical format. However, in the high probability domain (where a ‘likely’ event does not occur) such an effect of format is not consistently observed (Chapter 3). We suggest ‘directionality–outcome congruence’ can explain these findings. For example, the negatively directional term ‘unlikely’ led to harsher ratings because the outcome was counter to the original focus of the prediction (i.e., on its non-occurrence). Comparing communications featuring positively and negatively directional VPEs, we find that communicators are perceived as less credible and less correct given directionality–outcome incongruence (Chapter 4). Our findings demonstrate the influence of pragmatics on (a) the understanding of uncertainty communications and (b) perceived communicator credibility

When unlikely outcomes occur: the role of communication format in maintaining communicator credibility

The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty (Kinzig & Starrett, 2003), yet scientific forecasts are probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst an ‘unlikely’ outcome is not expected to occur, an ‘unlikely’ outcome will still occur one in five times (based on a translation of 20%, e.g. Theil, 2002), according to a frequentist perspective. When an ‘unlikely’ outcome does occur, the prediction may be deemed ‘erroneous’, reflecting a misunderstanding of the nature of uncertainty. Such misunderstandings could have ramifications for the subsequent (perceived) credibility of the communicator who made such a prediction. We examine whether the effect of ‘erroneous’ predictions on perceived credibility differs according to the communication format used. Specifically, we consider verbal, numerical (point and range [wide / narrow]) and mixed format probability expressions. We consistently find that subsequent perceptions are least affected by the ‘erroneous’ prediction when it is expressed numerically, regardless of whether it is a point or range estimate. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications regarding ‘unlikely’ events, wherever possible

Examining the Role of Environment in a Comprehensive Sample of Compact Groups

(Abridged) Compact groups, with their high number densities, small velocity dispersions, and an interstellar medium that has not been fully processed, provide a local analog to conditions of galaxy interactions in the earlier universe. The frequent and prolonged gravitational encounters that occur in compact groups affect the evolution of the constituent galaxies in a myriad of ways, for example gas processing and star formation. Recently, a statistically significant "gap" has been discovered mid-infrared IRAC colorspace of compact group galaxies. This gap is not seen in field samples and is a new example of how the compact group environment may affect the evolution of member galaxies. In order to investigate the origin and nature of this gap, we have compiled a sample of 49 compact groups. We find that a statistically significant deficit of galaxies in this gap region of IRAC colorspace is persistant in this sample, lending support to the hypothesis that the compact group environment inhibits moderate SSFRs. We note a curvature in the colorspace distribution, which is fully consistent with increasing dust temperature as the activity in a galaxy increases. This full sample of 49 compact groups allows us to subdivide the data according to physical properties of the groups. An analysis of these subsamples indicates that neither projected physical diameter nor density show a trend in colorspace within the values represented by this sample. We hypothesize that the apparent lack of a trend is due to the relatively small range of properties in this sample. Thus, the relative influence of stochastic effects becomes dominant. We analyze spectral energy distributions of member galaxies as a function of their location in colorspace and find that galaxies in different regions of MIR colorspace contain dust with varying temperatures and/or PAH emission.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa

“Righteous Minds” in Health Care: Measurement and Explanatory Value of Social Intuitionism in Accounting for the Moral Judgments in a Sample of U.S. Physicians

The broad diversity in physicians’ judgments on controversial health care topics may reflect differences in religious characteristics, political ideologies, and moral intuitions. We tested an existing measure of moral intuitions in a new population (U.S. physicians) to assess its validity and to determine whether physicians’ moral intuitions correlate with their views on controversial health care topics as well as other known predictors of these intuitions such as political affiliation and religiosity. In 2009, we mailed an 8-page questionnaire to a random sample of 2000 practicing U.S. physicians from all specialties. The survey included the Moral Foundations Questionnaire (MFQ30), along with questions on physicians’ judgments about controversial health care topics including abortion and euthanasia (no moral objection, some moral objection, strong moral objection). A total of 1032 of 1895 (54%) physicians responded. Physicians’ overall mean moral foundations scores were 3.5 for harm, 3.3 for fairness, 2.8 for loyalty, 3.2 for authority, and 2.7 for sanctity on a 0–5 scale. Increasing levels of religious service attendance, having a more conservative political ideology, and higher sanctity scores remained the greatest positive predictors of respondents objecting to abortion (β = 0.12, 0.23, 0.14, respectively, each p<0.001) as well as euthanasia (β = 0.08, 0.17, and 0.17, respectively, each p<0.001), even after adjusting for demographics. Higher authority scores were also significantly negatively associated with objection to abortion (β = −0.12, p<0.01), but not euthanasia. These data suggest that the relative importance physicians place on the different categories of moral intuitions may predict differences in physicians’ judgments about morally controversial topics and may interrelate with ideology and religiosity. Further examination of the diversity in physicians’ moral intuitions may prove illustrative in describing and addressing moral differences that arise in medical practice.</p

Mid-Infrared Evidence for Accelerated Evolution in Compact Group Galaxies

We find evidence for accelerated evolution in compact group galaxies from the distribution in mid-infrared colorspace of 42 galaxies from 12 Hickson Compact Groups (HCGs) compared to the the distributions of several other samples including the LVL+SINGS galaxies, interacting galaxies, and galaxies from the Coma Cluster. We find that the HCG galaxies are not uniformly distributed in colorspace, as well as quantitative evidence for a gap. Galaxies in the infall region of the Coma cluster also exhibit a non-uniform distribution and a less well defined gap, which may reflect a similarity with the compact group environment. Neither the Coma Center or interacting samples show evidence of a gap, leading us to speculate that the gap is unique to the environment of high galaxy density where gas has not been fully processed or stripped.Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the Galaxy Wars: Stellar Populations and Star Formation in Interacting Galaxies Conferenc

The Mannose Receptor (CD206) is an important pattern recognition receptor (PRR) in the detection of the infective stage of the helminth Schistosoma mansoni and modulates IFNγ production.

In this study, infective larvae of the parasitic helminth Schistosoma mansoni were shown to contain a large number of glycosylated components specific for the Mannose Receptor (MR; CD206), which is an important pattern recognition receptor (PRR) of the innate immune system. MR ligands were particularly rich in excretory/secretory (E/S) material released during transformation of cercariae into schistosomula, a process critical for infection of the host. E/S material from carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFDA-SE)-labelled cercariae showed enhanced binding by cells lines that over-express the MR. Conversely, uptake was significantly lower by bone marrow-derived macrophages (MΦ) from MR(-/-) mice, although they were more active as judged by enhanced pro-inflammatory cytokine production and CD40 expression. After natural percutaneous infection of MR(-/-) mice with CFDA-SE-labelled parasites, there were fewer cells in the skin and draining lymph nodes that were CFDA-SE(+) compared with wild-type mice, implying reduced uptake and presentation of larval parasite antigen. However, antigen-specific proliferation of skin draining lymph node cells was significantly enhanced and they secreted markedly elevated levels of IFNγ but decreased levels of IL-4. In conclusion, we show that the MR on mononuclear phagocytic cells, which are plentiful in the skin, plays a significant role in internalising E/S material released by the invasive stages of the parasite which in turn modulates their production of pro-inflammatory cytokines. In the absence of the MR, antigen-specific CD4(+) cells are Th1 biased, suggesting that ligation of the MR by glycosylated E/S material released by schistosome larvae modulates the production of CD4(+) cell specific IFNγ

Does clinical management improve outcomes following self-Harm? Results from the multicentre study of self-harm in England

Background Evidence to guide clinical management of self-harm is sparse, trials have recruited selected samples, and psychological treatments that are suggested in guidelines may not be available in routine practice. Aims To examine how the management that patients receive in hospital relates to subsequent outcome. Methods We identified episodes of self-harm presenting to three UK centres (Derby, Manchester, Oxford) over a 10 year period (2000 to 2009). We used established data collection systems to investigate the relationship between four aspects of management (psychosocial assessment, medical admission, psychiatric admission, referral for specialist mental health follow up) and repetition of self-harm within 12 months, adjusted for differences in baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Results 35,938 individuals presented with self-harm during the study period. In two of the three centres, receiving a psychosocial assessment was associated with a 40% lower risk of repetition, Hazard Ratios (95% CIs): Centre A 0.99 (0.90–1.09); Centre B 0.59 (0.48–0.74); Centre C 0.59 (0.52–0.68). There was little indication that the apparent protective effects were mediated through referral and follow up arrangements. The association between psychosocial assessment and a reduced risk of repetition appeared to be least evident in those from the most deprived areas. Conclusion These findings add to the growing body of evidence that thorough assessment is central to the management of self-harm, but further work is needed to elucidate the possible mechanisms and explore the effects in different clinical subgroups

Limiting Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Formation Using Cold Atmospheric Pressure Plasma

We investigate the ability to disrupt and limit growth biofilms of Pseudomonas aeruginosa using application of cold atmospheric pressure (CAP) plasma. The effect of the bio-film's exposure to a helium (CAP) jet was assessed at varying time points during biofilm maturation. Results showed that the amount of time during biofilm growth that CAP pressure was applied has a crucial role on the ability of biofilms to mature and recover after CAP exposure. Intervention during the early stages of biofilm formation (0-8 h) results in a 4-5-log reduction in viable bacterial cells (measured at 24 h of incubation) relative to untreated biofilms. However, CAP treatment of biofilm at 12 h and above only results in a 2-log reduction in viable cells. This has potentially important implications for future clinical application of CAP to treat infected wounds

The Malthusian Paradox: performance in an alternate reality game

The Malthusian Paradox is a transmedia alternate reality game (ARG) created by artists Dominic Shaw and Adam Sporne played by 300 participants over three months. We explore the design of the game, which cast players as agents of a radical organisation attempting to uncover the truth behind a kidnapping and a sinister biotech corporation, and highlight how it redefined performative frames by blurring conventional performer and spectator roles in sometimes discomforting ways. Players participated in the game via a broad spectrum of interaction channels, including performative group spectacles and 1-to-1 engagements with game characters in public settings, making use of low- and high-tech physical and online artefacts including bespoke and third party websites. Players and game characters communicated via telephony and social media in both a designed and an ad-hoc manner. We reflect on the production and orchestration of the game, including the dynamic nature of the strong episodic narrative driven by professionally produced short films that attempted to respond to the actions of players; and the difficulty of designing for engagement across hybrid and temporally expansive performance space. We suggest that an ARG whose boundaries are necessarily unclear affords rich and emergent, but potentially unsanctioned and uncontrolled, opportunities for interactive performance, which raises significant challenges for design